We all know the drill by now, right? Right? So let's get to it.
Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
I've seen three of the five performances, and of the ones I've seen, Javier Bardem is the clear favorite. Indeed, it seems as though he's been the favorite since No Country came out. The only person who has a chance is Hal Holbrook. Two reasons why: First, it's the only major nomination for a film a lot of people loved. Second, as a lifetime acheivement award for Hal.
Should Win: Bardem
Will Win: Bardem
Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saorise Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee has the all the things in her favor that Hal Holbrook does in the previous category, but she's barely in the movie. I think Blanchett cancels herself out here and with Best Actress, plus she's already got a statue. Ronan, as good as she was, might as well not even be in the race. That leaves us with Ryan and Swinton. Both play unsympathetic characters. Ryan's character is an absolutely unapologetic druggie. Swinton's is a total mess pushed into horrific acts. Either would be a great choice. Swinton takes it though, solely because more people have seen the film and it's the best chance for an award for the film.
Should Win: Ryan
Will Win: Swinton