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    Friday, February 22, 2008

    Dweeze's Fearless Oscar Forecast: Episode Four A New Hope

    We all know the drill by now, right? Right? So let's get to it.

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
    Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
    Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
    Hal Holbrook - Into The Wild
    Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

    I've seen three of the five performances, and of the ones I've seen, Javier Bardem is the clear favorite. Indeed, it seems as though he's been the favorite since No Country came out. The only person who has a chance is Hal Holbrook. Two reasons why: First, it's the only major nomination for a film a lot of people loved. Second, as a lifetime acheivement award for Hal.

    Should Win: Bardem
    Will Win: Bardem

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
    Ruby Dee - American Gangster
    Saorise Ronan - Atonement
    Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
    Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

    Ruby Dee has the all the things in her favor that Hal Holbrook does in the previous category, but she's barely in the movie. I think Blanchett cancels herself out here and with Best Actress, plus she's already got a statue. Ronan, as good as she was, might as well not even be in the race. That leaves us with Ryan and Swinton. Both play unsympathetic characters. Ryan's character is an absolutely unapologetic druggie. Swinton's is a total mess pushed into horrific acts. Either would be a great choice. Swinton takes it though, solely because more people have seen the film and it's the best chance for an award for the film.

    Should Win: Ryan
    Will Win: Swinton

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