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    Thursday, February 21, 2008

    Dweeze's Fearless Oscar Forecast Episode Three: Attack of the Oscar Forecast

    Change in format for the rest of the posts. I'll list all the nominees, with an attempt at commentary on most.

    Original Screenplay:
    Juno: Diablo Cody (An almost universally-loved film with almost no chance of winning any other award.)
    Lars and the Real Girl: Nancy Oliver (Welcome to the ranks of it's an honor just to be nominated.)
    Michael Clayton: Tony Gilroy (Same analysis as Juno - everyone loves the film, but it might get shut out the rest of the night.)
    Ratatouille: Brad Bird, story by Jim Capobianco and Jan Pinkava (A great film, but by this point it's already won all the awards it's going to get.)
    The Savages: Tamara Jenkins (Have a seat with Ms. Oliver.)

    Should Win: Diablo Cody
    Will Win: Diablo Cody

    Adapted Screenplay:
    Atonement: Christopher Hampton (Welcome to shutoutsville, Atonement!!)
    Away From Her: Sarah Polley (Welcome to Anhonortobenominatedville, Sarah Polley!)
    The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: Ronald Harwood (Have a seat over there by Ms. Polley, Mr. Harwood!)
    No Country for Old Men: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
    There Will Be Blood: Paul Thomas Anderson

    Okay, the first big battle of the night between the two front-runners for Best Picture and Best Director. I'll leave my thoughts on the merits of the two films until later. If I can. I mean, if I have a clear opinion as to which of these two films is the better film, and I don't know if I can separate that opinion from my opinion on the screenplay.

    You know, I can't. I've made several attempts to do so, but can't seem to manage it. So let's just go with the prediction.

    Should Win: No Country for Old Men
    Will Win: No Country for Old Men

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